There are 110 (+/- a couple) days left until election day

[Dave]

There are 110 (+/- a couple) days left until election day

And if the events of Aurora Colorado mean anything, the election is far off. 110 days is a long, long time in politics.
Nothing political importance happened today. Both sides behaved admirably in light of evens.

What we do know:

1) We must get through the two nominating conventions.
Only after that will most voters get engaged.

2) The OLYMPICS will be larger than anything but natural disasters and tragedies (like today), or foreign affairs.
Even LIN-sanity blew politics off the front page.

3) There will be debates. Probably two presidential and one vice-presidential
Those have the potential of changing everything in one question.

4) THE POLLS (oh my what a messy business these are) ...
Right now, the polls cluster at 47/47 with the rest undecided.
Don't trust any single poll, look at the aggregate of all polls. One poll does not a trend make in this day and age. It takes several polls over the period of more than a week to show a trend. I read the daily posts by statisticians and math gurus about this election and the current polls just are not showing trends. There is no joy in this Mudville for these Casey's (if I may use a sports metaphor)
Looking at the aggregates by time of many polls shows the sensitivity (the scatter) and also the average. Right now, neither candidate holds an edge. There is no apparent trend.

5) the future will decide this election. The past has not and will not. No one will look back on July and say "this was a deciding point"... Voters have not decided yet.

And that's where the election for president sits today. 110 days out.

[moi621]

5) the future will decide this election. The past has not and will not. No one will look back on July and say "this was a deciding point"... Voters have not decided yet.

And that's where the election for president sits today. 110 days out.

Oh NO!
The future just became present so very momentarily and is now past.
What should I do?
I know, I will wait for the next future





in 2016.
2012 No ObamNey. Vote for Gary Johnson as an investment in 2016
because OBAMney or obamNEY is not going to make a difference between 2012 & 2016.

[Mac]

Polling process has improved over the years but there is still a margin of error to all polls. Look at Truman and Dewey 1948. It is only the final poll, the election, that counts. So grin and bear it for the next 110 days.

[Dave]

I think I heard that one of the Sunday talking head programs has scored Netanyahu for an interview.
That should be interesting if I heard correctly...

In terms of next week... not much politically is going to happen. There will be funerals for the victims of Aurora Colorado and those will dampen politics.

Romney's going to be in Europe next week, Britain and then Israel and then some other countries, finally seeing his horse in the Olympics.
I have no clue what will go on in Europe. It's a guessing game (as far as I can tell).

Europe is still affecting the US stock market. That's something else I don't spend too much time figuring out because they aren't easy to understand and I hate economics with a passion.

I think Friday the 27th is a triple witching day for Stocks. Expect the market to do something (it ain't called "triple" witching because it's predictable)

The week after, August 3rd is the Friday for unemployment numbers.
I predict that the democrats will see good things, the Republicans will see bad things. More yada, yada, yada...

OLYMPICS
27 July to 12 August. Expect a celebration of Medals at the White House. Every president does it. No political benefit.

Conventions:
August 27–30, 2012: 2012 Republican National Convention to be held in Tampa, Florida[115]
September 3–6, 2012: 2012 Democratic National Convention to be held in Charlotte, North Carolina[116]

[gareth19]

There are 110 (+/- a couple) days left until election day

And if the events of Aurora Colorado mean anything, the election is far off. 110 days is a long, long time in politics.
3) There will be debates. Probably two presidential and one vice-presidential
Those have the potential of changing everything in one question.
.

Wasn't there a debate in which Reagan said he didn't understand his multibillion-dollar defense program? And he still got reelected. People who could vote for George W. Bush are stupid enough to vote for Willard M. Romney, so I think the debates will go over their heads.

[Dave]

Wasn't there a debate in which Reagan said he didn't understand his multibillion-dollar defense program? And he still got reelected. People who could vote for George W. Bush are stupid enough to vote for Willard M. Romney, so I think the debates will go over their heads.

That's why I said in the polling thread and this thread there is a 47/47 split.
Among registered and likely voters, the citizenry is evenly divided and there is only a small percentage of swing voters that all these campaigns want to convince.

remember, partisans are devoted to their candidate.
And of course, the other candidate is full of crap, a moron and a bleeding tosser (to borrow a British phrase)
That's called politics. Don't take it personally. (he said choking on his own words)

We mostly know who's going to vote for which candidate. There's a few who will decide upon hearing the debates or hearing about the debates.

Look at the last presidential election.
In late 2007 and early 2008, everyone thought the nominee would be Hillary Clinton and now she's one of the best Secretaries of State.
In late July of 2008, no one knew who Sarah Palin was. No one would have guessed.
In Early September of 2008, Palin invigorated the McCain ticket and was wowing the republican base and swing voters. She was a spectacular though unfortunate choice.
Around September 8th, McCain called a halt to the campaign. He TOOK the lead. Everyone assembled in the GW Bush White House to hear a plan to save the failing economy at McCain's request. McCain didn't have a plan and Obama did. Whatever you think of those plans, it all comes down to one had a plan and one didn't. McCain lost the advantage at that point.
And in the 2008 debates, Obama beat McCain. There was a debate where McCain stood like the angry old man who takes the ball away from the kids and never even looked at Obama. That was a lousy image on camera -- petty, childish, ignorant and hurtful. There will probably be a debate in each month of September and October. One for domestic affairs and one for foreign affairs.

So it is still early in this election cycle.

I don't remember Reagan saying that in a debate. That doesn't mean it did or didn't happen.

[Riverwind]

I think back to the 2008 campaign and one thing stands out, on a Tuesday McCain said, the economy was sound, on Thursday it crashed. If I remember he lost about 10 points in the polls and never recovered.

I see this year being no different, it will happen in October, I suspect Obama will ask the question that Mitt can't answer or wont. It will give the election to Obama and Mitt will loose by a few % and 100 electoral votes.

Why do I say this, he is holding on showing his taxes, my guess as even republicans are telling him to show them now, he will wait, it will kill him one way or the other. He would have been better served to have showed them 6 months ago, do the damage control then move forward, he is not and this is like an Albatross hanging around his neck, it will be his undoing. I see it happening in the domestic debate, Obama will put him on the spot, and Mitt will not be able to respond because no matter what he does at that time, its to late. I will even go so far as to say that Obama will question why he has overseas accounts. WHAT your money is TO good for America. I see this coming, the longer Mitt waits the more it will hurt him.

If Obama does not do something like this, he may loose. I think the Obama people know this and are setting Mitt up, this is national hard ball and Mitt has only played softball, He may be a captain in industry but he is not when it comes to politics.




Of course I could be totally out to lunch, time will tell.


River

[moi621]

McCain wasn't McCain in '08.
Plus the guy was running against "the presumed winner".

[Riverwind]

I think if McCain had not picked Sarah and the economy waited to tank until after the election he would have been elected.


Moi, lots of us like McCain, I still do and I think he would have made a good president, however if anything happened to him can you picture Sarah as president? shudder the thought.


River

[A-1]

Fuck the Republicans. I don't care any more. After what they did to Dick Lugar FUCK ALL OF THEM!!! They are ALL sons of BITCHES...

[Dave]

McCain wasn't McCain in '08.
Plus the guy was running against "the presumed winner".

That's not what I remember. After the convention and before the Financial Summit, McCain was ahead and beating Obama. That sequence of events I do solidly remember.

The press didn't discover much about Sarah Palin other than she was a bit goofy.
It was going to be hard to stop undecided women from voting for her until McCain as the head of the ticket goofed up economics. I mean that about women. To this day I hear women say she got a bad deal.

Remember Palin did well in her debate. She's not stupid. I don't think she's well informed but she's not stupid. She was capable enough of a politician to be elected governor.

However, since then, we've found out much more about dear Sarah.

Do not underestimate women voters.

[Dave]

Now this series of events (Aurora and Penn State) is why I said there is 110 days to the election.

How quickly the attention of the American public moves from from one shiny object to another.

[Riverwind]

That's for sure, the attention span of a duck. (every day is a brand new day)


River

[A-1]

Somebody made the comment about low approval ratings and hos somebody with ratings as low as Obama's low ratings in the past was never re-elected.

That was then, this is now.

Obama is a black man, no black man has ever been elected President of the U.S. before. On top of that, the rich crackers like Romney is what we usually got.