For those who kind of follow news from there, I thought the following article in the Financial Times (June 9/10) was kind of interesting.
The Chinese economy is slowing. Exports, investment and production are weak. One survey of manufacturing employers showed 8% cut jobs last month. Right now employment, however, is still strong. The estimate is 100 job hunters for every 108 jobs.
The reason is demographics caused by the one child rule. The Chinese workforce should peak in 2015 and then begin to decline. Already apprenticeship programs are suffering because nobody wants to commit to two years of training when jobs are plentiful. The ratio of retirees to workers should drop from 5:1 now to 2:1 in 2030.
The bottom line is that for now do not expect a stimulus program from the Chinese unless unemployment becomes an issue.
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