A-1, what's really interesting about the numbers is how little real estate actually rose in 40 years, when prices are quoted in constant dollars. Most people are, or were, sold on buying real estate as their prime investment. It's never really been that good.
Moi, to your point about the land, you know that the price of land can fluctuate wildly because of its location. Land can become more or less valuable almost overnight because of unforeseen developments - highway construction, location of businesses, demographic shifts, etc. The value of nearby land supports the value of your land. That means long-term land holdings are highly speculative, just like long-term bonds. In your part of California, you may have been lulled into a sense of security by the explosive growth that took place over decades. But such growth is neither inevitable nor permanent. If the population declines or the median income, prices can fall.
Regardless of what you invest in, you always need an exit strategy - a way to get out with minimal losses if things go bad. I don't think you have that with your real estate. Of course, fortunes are made in real estate, but look closely and you'll see that the billion-dollar projects come to fruition in only a few years, and that the surrounding developments which support the value of the primary development were already underway. In fact, real estate tycoons usually negotiate in advance for the construction of other developments in the area which affect the value of their development - transport, shopping, entertainment, etc. They approach local governments and other developers, making their plans contingent on the support they get. So these big projects are not really speculative. They're short-term with a high probability of success. Just buying land and saying "it always goes up" is pure gambling.
I wish you well, but that's how it is.
